Miguel Arias for City Manager?

BY KEVIN HALLWhile all eyes are turned to the presidential election, local politicians are focused on their immediate prospects. With three Fresno City Council members due to term out in 2026 and only a couple of options left to climb the political ladder, cracks have already appeared in Fresno’s Democratic front.

The first breach is Council Member Luis Chavez’s attempt to oust former boss Sal Quintero, a fellow Dem, from the County Board of Supervisors; Council Member Miguel Arias tried, too, but failed to make the runoff. The top two finishers have spent most of their adult lives in or around political office, primarily at City Hall.

Quintero worked there for more than 20 years as an elected official and staffer. Likewise for Chavez, who was Quintero’s chief of staff before the latter became a county supervisor; he then, thanks to Quintero’s backing, inherited the District 5 seat.

Chavez, who has already lost one State Senate race, clearly feels it’s his destiny to remain an elected official, and he has a bevy of building trade unions and real estate interests that agree. His financial backers are apparently displeased with Quintero’s performance. But Chavez will quite likely lose to the incumbent whose roots in southeast Fresno run deep and who’s well liked by many in the district.

Chavez’s options don’t end there. His last opportunity, assuming Rep. Jim Costa’s continued good health, is Senate District 14, currently held by Anna Caballero who terms out in 2026. The safe Democratic district includes all of south and central Fresno, runs west to Coalinga and north to Merced. It also includes the residences of Chavez’s fellow Council members Nelson Esparza, Arias and Annalisa Perea. The first two term out in 2026.

Esparza has already filed to run for Caballero’s seat. It’s do-or-die time for his political ambitions. He announced in August, just in time for the Democratic National Convention, and has garnered Rep. Costa’s endorsement as well as that of Fresno’s MAGA mayor, Jerry Dyer. Arias will have to join the race, too.

Were Perea to run she could not simultaneously seek reelection to the City Council. Rather than risk everything, she’ll wait until 2028 and run for Joaquin Arambula’s seat in the State Assembly, after she gets reelected to the City Council in 2026. And, yes, Arambula terms out in 2028.

Just to round out the SD14 field, add Assembly Member Esmeralda Soria. Her lack of enthusiasm for campaigning and in-district work has left her vulnerable. Nonetheless, she would enter the Senate race as the strong favorite, given her strong Sacramento lobbyist and state party connections and running in a safe Democratic seat.

Confused yet? Does it matter? Are there any discernible, distinguishing political features that separate any of these pols from the others? In their minds, yes, but in terms of political values or ethics, they’re all cast from the same moldy mold. From following the MAGA Supreme Court’s 6-3 decision on criminalizing the homeless to ignoring state laws on everything from housing to health, they’re all blue in more ways than one.

I think it plays out like this: Chavez loses to Quintero this year and runs for SD14 against Soria, Esparza and Arias in 2026. Arias loses in the primary. Soria wins the runoff against Chavez or Esparza, Twiddledum and Tweedledee. Arias leaves office in 2027, goes to work for Arambula and begins his campaign to succeed Arambula in the statehouse.

Which takes us to 2028 and the long-anticipated end to Dyer’s political career, provided we haven’t slipped into a Trump dictatorship by then. Maxwell, in the role of Democrats’ Great White Hope, runs for mayor, but so do Arambula and Karbassi. All concerned term out of their current offices that year. Arias runs against Perea for AD31 having thoroughly combed the district ground for two years as a staffer to Arambula. Sacramento backers will determine that race. I predict Tweedledee wins.

As for the mayor’s race, it should turn out to be a runoff between Arambula and whatever right-wing crazy north Fresno sends us, the list of which includes Karbassi. Arambula, the most decent human being among the lot of them, wins. Arias, having lost the Assembly race to Perea, goes to work at City Hall as Arambula’s city manager, a role he thoroughly prepped for as a staffer—and as the “fixer” (see mark-arax.com)—to Michael Hanson at Fresno Unified School District.

Finally, there are the three open City Council seats in 2026 to consider. Democrats will draw their candidates from current officeholders at the Fresno Unified School District Board, the State Center Community College District Board and the Fresno County Board of Education.

That melee will be preceded by plenty of elbowing and posturing, but on the ideological front, conformity is the password for successful candidates. None of these down-ballot officeholders has offered an original idea or plan of any type. Successfully plugging into the local political system has been their sole ambition. The faces and names might change, but the politics remain the same.

Democrat vs. Democrat