Since at least October 1805, Americans have heard the phrase, “This election is the most important of our lifetimes.”1
This year, it is more true than ever.
There are many electoral races this November.
Some races have no opposition. Some limit the choice to like-minded, right-wing, extremist Republicans such as Steve Brandau and Garry Bredefeld in the Fresno County Supervisor District 2 race or Vince Fong (R–Bakersfield) versus Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux for Congressional District 20.
Still others appear to be easy wins for one party or the other, for example, incumbent Joaquin Arambula (D–Fresno) versus Solomon Verduzco, a Republican political strategist and commentator, in Assembly District 31, and Tom McClintock (R–Elk Grove) versus Mike Barkley, a Democrat whose experience includes being a lawyer, an accountant and a computer programmer, in Congressional District 5.
Here, we look at two Congressional races that, on paper, should be easy Democratic wins, yet are considered tight races.
Based on the demographics, Congressional District 13 (CD13) and Congressional District 22 (CD22) should not be close.
CD13 covers parts of Stanislaus, Fresno, Madera and Merced counties. Incumbent John Duarte (R–Modesto) is being challenged by Adam Gray, a former Democratic Assembly member. CD22 includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties. In CD22, incumbent David Valadao (R–Hanford) is being opposed by Rudy Salas, also a former Democratic Assembly member. Both are rematches of the 2022 election.
Both CD13 and CD22 have majority Latino populations and Democratic majorities of registered voters. Both Republican incumbents are extreme right-wing Republicans who claim to be “moderate.” Both districts would have been won by Biden in 2020. This year, the Cook Political Report designates both districts as a “toss up.”2 Low Democratic and low Latino voter turnout in 2022, a non-presidential election year, resulted in Democratic losses in both districts.
Congressional District 13
In 2022, Duarte, owner of a plant nursery business, defeated Gray, a small business owner and educator, by 564 votes. As of July 5, Democrats had a 41% to 29% voter registration edge over Republicans in the district with 22% No Party Preference.3 Biden would have defeated Trump 54.3%–43.4% in this district.4
Duarte claims to be a moderate. On several issues, however, Duarte is anything but moderate.5
Duarte often votes with the far-right MAGA extremists of the Republican Party, voting in tandem with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R–Ga.) 79% of the time. Duarte has a 100% rating from anti-choice groups. He has voted against bills promoting gun safety. He initially voted against the expulsion of Rep. George Santos (R–N.Y.; Nov. 1) before he voted for it (Dec. 1).
Duarte voted against waivers and modifications of federal student loans, against environmental regulations such as air pollution controls in new vehicles and heavy-duty engines and against federal efforts to ban gas stoves. He voted for the impeachment of President Biden for high crimes and misdemeanors (Dec. 13, 2023) and for the impeachment of Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas.
To win, Gray must increase both Latino and Democratic voter turnout and listen to his prospective constituents.
An indication of the impact of not addressing voter concerns is the surprise endorsement of Duarte by the Central Valley Leadership Round Table (CVLRT). The CVLRT is a mainly Latino group representing the interests of the primarily rural communities in the west San Joaquin Valley.
Eliseo Gamino, coordinator of the CVLRT, says that the group held an open forum at Don Pepe’s Restaurant in Firebaugh with both candidates present. There were 60–70 members of the CVLRT present. Members heard presentations from both candidates and voted in secret on an endorsement.
Gamino said the main difference between the two candidates’ presentations was that Gray spoke mainly about water issues, which are important to the Central Valley. Water is important not only to farmers but also to towns with poor water quality and pumps that are going dry.
During the forum, Gray did not address community needs for water and did not address the two other issues important to CVLRT members: immigration and affordable housing.
Duarte addressed both immigration and affordable housing.
Moreover, as an Assembly member, Gray supported local law enforcement turning in undocumented immigrants to ICE (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement) for deportation when being released from jail.
Gray considers himself a “Blue Dog” Democrat and might not have presented as a “true Democrat” in 2022. That could have contributed to his loss.
Congressional District 22
CD22 is a majority Latino (60%) and Democratic-leaning district: Democrats 41.7%, Republicans 27.2% and No Party Preference 22.8%.3 Biden would have defeated Trump 55.3%–42.3% in the district in 2020.4 In 2022, Valadao beat Salas by less than 4,000 votes.
Why is this a close race? One thing Valadao has going for him is that he speaks Spanish. He speaks well enough to have had a debate in Spanish in 2014 with then candidate Amanda Renteria and often speaks to groups in Spanish. However, except for his vote to impeach former president Trump, his voting record has been in step with the Republican Party. He has a 100% rating from anti-choice organizations.
Valadao voted against the $1.2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, against raising the minimum wage and against lowering the price of medications.
To win, Salas needs strong Latino and other Democratic turnout.
Perhaps the Harris/Walz ticket will help Salas and Gray generate enough excitement to increase Latino and Democratic turnout and turn those seats blue.
References
- https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/most-important-election-of-our-lifetimes-history.html
- https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
- https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/123day-gen-2024/congressional.pdf
- https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/9/29/2055001/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2020-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-new-and-old-districts
- https://fresnoalliance.com/cvlrt-endorses-republican-for-congress/
- https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/election/voter-guide/article292314129.html
- Sacramento Bee article on the race between Salas and Valadao.
- https://dccc.org/the-case-against-david-valadao-2/
